首页|中国增长动力切换、时空演变与"双门槛"测度——来自省际层面的经验证据

中国增长动力切换、时空演变与"双门槛"测度——来自省际层面的经验证据

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我国经济正处于增速换挡的增长动力切换关键时期,逐步迈向高质量发展阶段.本文基于 2000-2022 年中国省际层面的面板数据,聚焦研究中国经济增长动力切换问题,探讨了经济增长动力切换的时空演变与"双门槛"效应.结果表明:①生产性劳动、研发性劳动、生产投入以及研发投入显著地促进了我国经济增长;②中国增长动力切换经历了"生产性劳动与生产投入"、"研发性劳动与生产投入"以及"研发性劳动与研发投入"三个阶段;③中国经济增长动力时空演变存在区域异质性和时段异质性,不同区域和时段的经济增长动力存在显著差异;④中国经济增长动力切换具有外部制约条件,存在"双门槛"效应.同时,采用主实验加入控制变量前后对比、双边缩尾、排除新冠肺炎疫情影响和倾向得分匹配等方法进行稳健性检验,发现实证结果具有稳健性.本研究有助于理解经济增长动力切换的机制、路径与制约条件,为制定相应的政策和战略提供参考依据.
China's Growth Dynamics Switching,Spatial and Temporal Evolution,and"Double Threshold"Measurement:Empirical Evidence from the Interprovincial Level
China's economy is in a critical period of growth dynamics switching as the growth rate shifts to a high-quality development stage.Based on China's inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2022,focuseing on the issue of China's economic growth momentum switching,the spatial and temporal evolution of economic growth momentum switching and the"double threshold"effect was explored.The results show that productive labor,R&D labor,production inputs,and R&D inputs significantly contribute to China's economic growth.China's growth momentum switching has experienced the"productive labor and production inputs",and"R&D labor and production inputs",and"R&D labor and production inputs",and"R&D labor and R&D input".The spatial and temporal evolution of China's economic growth dynamics has regional heterogeneity and time heterogeneity,and there are significant differences in economic growth dynamics between different regions and time periods.the switching of China's economic growth dynamics is subject to external constraints,and there exists a"double-threshold"effect.At the same time,it uses the main experiment to add control variables before and after the comparison,bilateral shrinking tails,excluding the impact of epidemics and propensity score matching to conduct robustness tests,and finds that the empirical results are robust.This study helps to understand the mechanisms,paths and constraints of switching economic growth dynamics,and provides a reference basis for formulating corresponding policies and strategies.

production inputR&D inputproductive laborR&D labor

庞磊、陈晓磊

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云南师范大学经济与管理学院, 昆明 650500

昆明市社会科学院, 昆明 650500

生产投入 研发投入 生产性劳动 研发性劳动

国家社会科学基金一般项目

20BJL050

2024

技术经济
中国技术经济学会

技术经济

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.896
ISSN:1002-980X
年,卷(期):2024.43(1)
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