How Disruptive Technology Evolves from Marginal Presence to Dominant Future Force?Based on a Technology-application-ecology Perspective
Disruptive technology possesses the potential to revolutionize mainstream technology trajectories,reshape industry market structures,and redefine the rules of international competition.How it evolves from a marginal force into a mainstream power in the future is of practical significance for technological self-reliance and self-improvement.Based on the innovation theory,the technology-application-ecology(TAE)framework was constructed to analyze the evolutionary paths of disruptive technologies and their mechanisms of action.A process of systemic change was observed through research during the transition of disruptive technologies from marginal forces to future mainstream power.This process is characterized by a dynamic technological evolution trajectory of germination-proliferation-recursion,an application leap path progressing from initial,to intermediate and target,and ultimately to future scenarios,as well as a process of innovation ecosystem transformation that evolves through arboreal,circular,and network-like structures.The systemic revolution of disruptive technologies is intricately shaped by a range of factors:the integrative development of converging technologies,the intensive interplay between technology and its applications,and the dynamic transformation of competitive advantages and disadvantages in latecomer scenarios.It encompasses three critical conditions for the conversion of latecomer advantages:technological bifurcation,application leaps,and ecological collaboration.Finally,policy insights are achieved from various aspects,including emphasizing technology science,strengthening demand-side management,optimizing the innovation ecosystem,and seizing policy opportunities.
disruptive technologytechnology-application-ecosystem(TAE)marginal forcesfuture mainstream power
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