首页|地铁交通潜在安全风险分析与管控策略——以莫斯科地铁突发事故为例

地铁交通潜在安全风险分析与管控策略——以莫斯科地铁突发事故为例

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地铁系统是城市生产生活进程中的精密复杂运行系统,由于其大多在地下密闭空间中运行,一旦发生重大运营安全事故,将会造成重大人身财产损失.俄乌冲突以来,莫斯科地铁站不但面临系统的运营安全风险,还存在包括地方武装恐怖袭击威胁在内的非系统性风险.本文整理了近50年莫斯科地铁运营安全事故,基于事故等级分级,总结莫斯科地铁运营安全影响因素,分析得出地铁恐怖袭击是俄乌冲突后莫斯科地铁运营重要潜在风险.引入危机生命周期MPRR理论,以2010年莫斯科地铁恐怖袭击事件为例构建MPRR模型,分析该模型并提出了俄乌冲突背景下莫斯科地铁恐怖袭击事件的全生命周期管控策略.
Analysis and Control Strategies of Potential Safety Risks in Subway Transportation——Taking the Moscow Metro Emergency as example
The subway system is a precise and complex operating system in the process of urban production and life.Due to its mostly operating in underground enclosed spaces,once a major operational safety accident occurs,it will cause significant personal and property losses.Since the Rus-sia-Ukraine conflict,Moscow subway stations have not only faced systematic operational security risks,but also non-systematic risks,including the threat of local armed terrorist attacks.This paper sorted out the safety accidents of Moscow subway operation in recent 50 years.Based on the classi-fication of accidents,it summarized the influencing factors of Moscow subway operation safety,and analyzed that the subway terrorist attack was an important potential risk of Moscow subway operation since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.By introducing the crisis life cycle MPRR theory,the 2010 Moscow subway terrorist attacks are taken as an example to build the MPRR model for further analysis.The full life cycle management and control strategy of the Moscow subway terrorist attacks is proposed in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Moscow Metrocrisis lifecycle theorycontrol strategy

袁红、Oleg Larin、李翔

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西南交通大学,成都 611756

俄罗斯交通大学,莫斯科 127994

俄罗斯普列汉诺夫经济大学,莫斯科 117997

莫斯科地铁 危机生命周期理论 管控策略

中国科技部与日本国际协力机构(JICA)联合研究项目&&

2022YFE010430022YJCZH226

2024

建设科技
住房和城乡建设部科技发展促进中心

建设科技

影响因子:0.6
ISSN:1671-3915
年,卷(期):2024.(7)
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