Prediction of geographical distribution of Emmenopterys henryi in East China based on MaxEnt model
Emmenopterys henryi is a rare and endangered tree species endemic to China,being the sole species in its genus and a relict from the Quaternary glaciation.The populations of E.henryi in the East China region are degrading and near ex-tinction in Jiangsu Province.Therefore,predicting the potentially suitable habitats in the East China region in the present and future periods,and revealing the key factors influencing change in its geographical distribution pattern,are of great im-portance for the effective conservation of the germplasm resources.In this study,the ENMeval package was used to deter-mine the optimal parameters for the MaxEnt model.Based on 54 contemporary geographical distribution records and 7 envi-ronmental variables,we simulated and predicted the potential distribution areas in East China for the present,2040,2060,and 2080.The contribution rate,permutation importance,and Jackknife test were comprehensively used to explore the en-vironmental factors influencing the suitable habitats in East China.The results of the MaxEnt model showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC value)was 0.801,indicating good prediction.The results indicated that the moderately and highly suitable distribution areas in East China were relatively small,primarily located in the moun-tainous and hilly regions of various provinces.The distribution area in East China will further expand in the next 20 years but will rapidly shrink from 2040 and potentially disappearing in plain areas after 2080.The combined results of the contri-bution rate,permutation importance,and jackknife test indicated that temperature factors(annual mean temperature,mean diurnal temperature range,mean temperature of the wettest quarter,temperature seasonality)and precipitation factors(an-nual precipitation,precipitation of the driest quarter)all constrained the distribution of E.henryi.
Emmenopterys henryiMaxEnt modelGeographical distributionSuitable distribution areaENMeval package
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
