Health Human Resource Prediction Based on Grey Forecasting Model in Tianjin
Objective:Based on the relevant data of Tianjin in the past 10 years,a grey model was established to predict the develop-ment of health talents in Tianjin in the next five years,in order to provide scientific evidence for the optimization of health human re-sources allocation in the future.Methods:Summarize the relevant data of health human resources from 2011 to 2022,analyze the change trend of health human resources in Tianjin in the past 10 years.Use Matlab software to conduct GM(1,1)model to predict and analyze the of health human resource allocation from 2023 to 2027.Results:From 2011 to 2022,the overall number of health human resources showed an upward trend,and the annual growth rates of registered nurses and technicians were relatively fastest.They are 5.85％and 6.11％respectively.The gray prediction model constructed has good fitting results.The prediction results are that by 2027,the number of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians,registered nurses,pharmacists and technicians will reach 161,019,72,324,63,655,9,116 and 10,839 respectively.Conclusion:In the future,there is a large shortage of nursing staff in Tianjin,so the cooperation between colleges and universities should be strengthened and medical institutions should pay more attention to the training and assessment of nursing staff.In order to avoid the limitations of a single model,multiple factors such as economy and society should be included in the prediction model,and multiple prediction models should also be considered to construct a combined model.
Health Human ResourcesGrey Forecasting ModelTianjin
万方数据
维普
