摘要
目的 了解1990-2019年江苏省人群伤害的疾病负担及其变化趋势.方法 利用2019年全球疾病负担研究资料,对1990-2019年江苏省人群伤害疾病负担进行分析,使用GBD 2019世界标准人口年龄构成对伤害发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)率进行标化,应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算年度平均变化百分比(AAPC),应用人群归因危险百分比(PAF)估计归因于职业性风险、饮酒和低骨密度所致伤害的疾病负担变化情况.结果2019年,江苏省全人群伤害标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率分别为7 688.1/10万(95％UI:7 141.0/10万～8 287.0/10万)、40.0/10万(95％UI:28.8/10万～49.8/10万)和2 135.3/10万(95％UI:1 788.2/10万～2 502.5/10万),男性伤害标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均高于女性.1990-2019年,伤害标化发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.41％,t=7.82,P＜0.05),标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均呈下降趋势(AAPC为-1.89％和-2.19％,t值为-20.23和-23.16,P值均＜0.05),伤害归因于职业性危害的PAF呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.28％,t=-8.91,P＜0.05),归因于饮酒和低骨密度的PAF呈上升趋势(AAPC为1.88％和2.46％,t值为16.73和30.69,P值均＜0.05).结论 江苏省人群伤害疾病负担呈下降趋势,男性伤害疾病负担高于女性,应针对重点人群开展减少酒精使用、预防职业性危害和低骨密度预防等工作.
Abstract
Objective To investigate the disease burden of injury and its trends in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019)data resources,the disease burden of injury in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed.The incidence,mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate of injury were stand-ardized by age of the GBD 2019 world population standard,and the average annual percent change(AAPC)was estimated with the software Joinpoint 4.9.1.0.In addition,the trends in the disease burden of injury attributable to occupational risk,alcohol consumption and low bone mineral density were examined with population attributable fraction(PAF).Results The age-standardized incidence,mortality and DALYs rate of injury were 7 688.1/105[95％uncertainty interval(UI):(7 141.0/105,8 287.0/105)],40.0/105[95％UI:(28.8/105,49.8/105)]and 2 135.3/105[95％UI:(1 788.2/105,2 502.5/105)]in Jiangsu Province in 2019,and the age-stand-ardized incidence,mortality and DALYs rate of injury were all higher among men than among women.The age-standardized incidence of injury appeared a tendency towards a rise in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019(AAPC=0.41％,t=7.82,P＜0.05)and both the age-standardized mortality(AAPC=-1.89％,t=-20.23,P＜0.05)and DALYs rate(AAPC=-2.19％,t=-20.23,P＜0.05)of injury ap-peared a tendency towards a reduction.The PAF of injury attributable to occupational hazards appeared a tendency towards a decline in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019(AAPC=-1.28％,t=-8.91,P＜0.05),and the PAF of injury attributable to alcohol consumption(AAPC=1.88％,t=16.73,P＜0.05)and low bone mineral density(AAPC=2.46％,t=30.69,P＜0.05)appeared a tendency towards a rise.Conclusions The disease burden of injury appeared a tendency towards a decline in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019,and was higher among men than among women in 2019.Reduced alcohol consumption and prevention of occupational hazards and low bone mineral density are recommended among high-risk populations.
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