Mortality and life loss of malignant tumors in Xinwu District,Wuxi City from 2011 to 2022
Objective To investigate the mortality,premature mortality and life loss due to malignant tumors among residents in Xinwu District,Wuxi City and to predict the trends in the mortality in the future.Methods Data pertaining to the mortality of malig-nant tumors in Xinwu District from 2011 to 2022 were collected,and the crude mortality,standardized mortality,premature mortality,po-tential years of life lost rate(PYLLR)and average years of life lost(AYLL)were calculated.The trends in mortality were evaluated from 2011 to 2022 with average annual percent change(AAPC)and predicted in 2025 and 2030 with the GM(1,1)model.Results The crude mortality,standardized mortality and premature mortality of malignant tumors were 209.65/105,101.97/105 and 6.51％among residents in Xinwu District from 2011 to 2022,and the crude mortality,standardized mortality and premature mortality of malig-nant tumors were 1.81,1.64 and 1.95 times more higher among men than among women.The standardized mortality and premature mortality of malignant tumors all appeared a tendency towards a decline among all residents(AAPC=-2.85％and-3.13％),men(AAPC=-3.23％and-3.00％)and women(AAPC=-2.61％and-3.15％)(t=-6.79 to-1.99,all P values＜0.05).The PYLLR and AYLL of malignant tumors were 14.25‰ and 11.41 year-persons.The PYLLR of malignant tumors was 17.92‰ among men,which was 1.68 times higher than among women,and the AYLL was 10.73 years-persons among men,which reduced by 2.00 year-persons relative to women.The PYLLR and AYLL of malignant tumors all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2011 to 2022 among all residents(AAPC=-3.13％and-1.64％)and men(AAPC=-4.48％and-2.32％)(t=-4.33 to-2.37,all P val-ues＜0.05).Based on the GM(1,1)model,the crude mortality,standardized mortality,premature mortality and AYLL of malignant tumors were predicted to be 193.82/105,79.03/105,4.97％and 9.89 year-persons in 2025 and 184.09/105,67.37/105,4.24％and 9.11 year-persons in 2030.Conclusions The burden of malignant tumors remains high among residents in Xinwu District.Intensified management of malignant tumors is required to further reduce the mortality of malignant tumors.
Malignant tumorPremature mortalityPotential years of life lostGM(1,1)modelPrediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
