目的 评价新型冠状病毒感染疫情对某医院门诊量的影响.方法 收集2018年1月至2022年12月某医院门诊量较大的10个代表性科室门诊量数据,采用中断时间序列分析方法(interrupted time series analysis,ITSA)分析各科室门诊量的变化趋势.结果 第一中断点,7个科室瞬时门诊量降低,降幅由高到低分别为儿科(β2=-2831.36)、普通外科(β2=-877.32)、皮肤科(β2=-838.33)、骨科(β2=-569.82)、产科(β2=-476.25)、呼吸内科(β2=-304.79)、消化内科(β2=-294.36);感染病科瞬时门诊量增高(β2=2 169.04);对妇科、肾内科门诊量影响无统计学意义(P值均＞0.05).第二中断点,有4个科室瞬时门诊量降低,降幅由高到低分别为感染病科(β2=-5158.29)、儿科(β2=-3 695.49)、肾内科(β2=-1 308.83)、呼吸内科(β2=-1152.95);感染病科(β5=311.07,P＜0.05)、儿科(β5=195.99,P＜0.05)、呼吸内科(β5=142.79,P＜0.05),在第二中断点后月门诊量呈现上升趋势且增长速度有所加快.结论 第一中断点对该医院门诊量影响较大,第二中断点影响相对较小,且部分门诊量反弹较为明显.疫情暴发对医疗资源配置和疫情防控工作有较大挑战.
Change of the number of outpatient visits in a hospital based on interrupted time-series analysis
Objective To examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the number of outpatient visits in a hospital.Methods Number of outpatient visits were collected from 10 departments of a hospital with high number of outpatient visits during the period from January 2018 through December 2022,and the trends in numbers of outpatient visits were analyzed using interrupted time-series analysis.Results In the first break point,the number of outpatient visits reduced instantaneously in 7 departments,with the lar-gest reduction seen in Department of Pediatrics(β2=-2831.36),followed by in Department of General Surgery(β2=-877.32),De-partment of Dermatology(β2=-838.33),Department of Orthopedics(β2=-569.82),Department of Obstetrics(β2=-476.25),De-partment of Respiratory Medicine(β2=-304.79)and Department of Gastroenterology(β2=-294.36),and the number of outpatient visits increased instantaneously in Department of Infectious Diseases(β2=2 169.04);however,the COVID-19 pandemic had no signif-icant impact on numbers of outpatients visits in Department of Gynecology or Nephrology(both P values＞0.05).In the second break point,the number of outpatient visits reduced instantaneously in 4 departments,with the largest reduction seen in Department of Infec-tious Diseases(β2=-5158.29),followed by in Department of Pediatrics(β2=-3 695.49),Department of Nephrology(β2=-1 308.83)and Department of Respiratory Medicine(β2=-1 152.95),and the number of monthly outpatient visits appeared a tend-ency towards a rise in Department of Infectious Diseases(β5=311.07,P＜0.05),Department of Pediatrics(β5=195.99,P＜0.05)and Department of Respiratory Medicine(β5=142.79,P＜0.05)after the second break point.Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic had a remarkable impact on the number of outpatient visits in the hospital at the first break point,and had a minor impact at the second break point,with remarkable rebounding in numbers of outpatient visits in some departments.The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major challenge to allocation of medical resources and epidemics containment.
Interrupted time-seriesPublic health emergencyNumber of outpatient visit
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万方数据
