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多方法联合预测"四川科技兴村"平台有效数据量

Forecast valid data of SiChuan-TechRural-Revitalization-Plat based on multi-method integration

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"四川科技兴村"平台有效数据量预测依赖于现有的移动平均法,而移动平均法在实际应用中无法准确捕捉数据的实时动态变化,导致预测结果未能达到期望的精度和效果.为了更准确地预测"四川科技兴村"平台有效数据量,提出了环同期预测法、次级平台加权平均法和数据留存评估法联合预测的方法.在提出的方法中,环同期预测法在时间序列数据基础上对月度定量预测;次级平台加权平均法完成对月度数据的修正,降低误差;数据留存评估法通过对数据量-有效数据量关系生成每月有效数据预测量;汇总成周期内有效数据预测量.理论分析及验证表明:多方法联合预测提供了"四川科技兴村"平台有效数据量的预测方法.
The valid data of SiCHuan-TechRural-Revitalization-Plat relies on the moving average method,which cannot accurate-ly capture the real-time dynamic changes of data in practical applications,resulting in the prediction results not meeting the ex-pected accuracy and effectiveness.In order to effectively forecast valid data of SiCHuan-TechRural-Revitalization-Plat,a multi-method is proposed,which includes a contemporaneous prediction method,secondary platform weighted average method and data retention evaluation method.In the multi-method,the contemporaneous prediction method quantitatively predicts monthly data based on time series data;the secondary platform weighted average method corrects monthly data and reduces errors;the data re-tention evaluation method generates monthly effective data premeasurements by examining the relationship between data and valid data;summarize into valid data pre measurements within one cycle.Theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that this provides an effective method for forecasting the valid data of SiCHuan-TechRural-Revitalization-Plat.

contemporaneous prediction methodsecondary platform weighted average methoddata retention evaluation meth-odmoving average methodforecasting of multi-method Integrationvalid data

廖建雄、刘黎立、程小帆

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四川博大纳川科技有限责任公司,四川 成都 610041

四川省计算机研究院,四川 成都 610041

环同期预测法 次级平台加权平均法 数据留存评估法 移动平均法 多方法联合预测 有效数据量

2024

技术与市场
四川省科技信息研究所

技术与市场

影响因子:0.566
ISSN:1006-8554
年,卷(期):2024.31(6)
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