Analysis of the influencing factors for severity of ischemic colitis and establishment of prediction model
Objective To analyze the influencing factors for the severity of ischemic colitis(IC)and establish a predictive model.Methods A total of 269 IC patients were divided into two groups of A(mild IC,220 cases)and B(severe IC,49 cases).The clinical data of the two groups were compared.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors for the severe IC.A predictive model was constructed.ROC curve was used to analyze its value in predicting the severe IC.Results The proportions of male patients and the patients with the history of abdominal surgery,constipation,remote cerebral infarction,abdominal distension and abdominal tenderness,and C-reactive protein,white blood cell count,neutrophil percentage,neutrophil absolute value,red blood cell distribution width,NLR,PLR,serum creatinine and D-dimer were higher,but the lymphocyte percentage,lymphocyte absolute value,sodium ion and proportion of bloody stool were lower in group B than those in group A(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the predictive model,and the equation was-5.276+0.960 × history of abdominal surgery+0.076 × NLR-1.364× bloody stool+1.656 × abdominal tenderness+0.030 × serum creatinine+0.480 × D-dimer.The history of abdominal surgery,abdominal tenderness and high levels of NLR,serum creatinineand D-dimer were the independent risk factors for the severe IC,and bloody stool was the protective factor for the severe IC(P＜0.05).The ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the predictive model in predicting the severe IC was 0.840,and the sensitivity and specificity were 91.8％and 61.4％,respectively.Conclusion History of abdominal surgery,abdominal tenderness,bloody stool,NLR,serum levels of creatinine and D-dimer are the independent risk factors for the severe IC.The constructed predictive model has a relatively good clinical value.
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