首页|三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的危险因素分析及其预测模型的建立

三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的危险因素分析及其预测模型的建立

Risk factor analysis of axillary lymph node metastasis in triple-negative breast cancer patients and the establishment of its prediction model

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目的 分析三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的危险因素,构建患者腋窝淋巴结转移的预测模型.方法 分析99例明确诊断三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的危险因素,采用R 4.0.2绘制三阴性乳腺癌患者淋巴结转移情况的列线图.使用ROC曲线和Bootstrap自抽样法进行内部验证.结果 多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,原发肿瘤直径>2cm[OR=4.280,95%CI(1.058~17.283)]和脉管内癌栓[OR=24.782,95%CI(4.705~130.530)]是三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的独立危险因素(P<0.05).用临床上影响淋巴结转移的因素构建淋巴结转移情况的列线图,预测三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的C指数为0.855,说明模型具有良好的预测能力;ROC曲线下面积为0.907,提示该模型预测三阴性乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移的准确度高.结论 原发肿瘤直径和脉管内癌栓是三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的独立预测因子.构建的三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的预测模型具有良好的应用价值,可为临床选择合适的治疗提供较为准确的评估.
Objective To analyze the risk factors for axillary lymph node metastasis in the patients with triple-negative breast cancer and establish a prediction model for axillary lymph node metastasis.Methods The risk factors for axillary lymph node metastasis in the patients with triple-negative breast cancer were analyzed.R-studio 4.0.2 was used to draw the nomographic chart of triple-negative breast cancer lymph node metastasis.Internal validation was performed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Bootstrap self-sampling method.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the primary tumor diameter>2 cm[OR=4.280,95%CI(1.058-17.283)]and intravascular carcinoma thrombus[OR=24.782,95%CI(4.705-130.530)]were the independent risk factors for axillary lymph node metastasis in triple-negative breast cancer(P<0.05).The factors associated with lymph node metastasis clinically were used to construct a nomogram of lymph node metastasis,while the results of the model showed a C-index of 0.855,indicating its good predictive ability.The AUC value was 0.907,indicating the high accuracy in predicting the status of axillary lymph node metastasis in triple-negative breast cancer.Conclusion Primary tumor diameter and intravascular carcinoma thrombus are the independent predictors of axillary lymph node metastasis in the patients with triple-negative breast cancer.The established prediction model of axillary lymph node metastasis in the patients with triple-negative breast cancer has good predictive value,which can provide accurate evaluation for clinical selection of appropriate treatment.

Triple-negative breast cancerLymph node metastasisNomogram

刘家伟

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210004 江苏,南京医科大学附属妇产医院(南京市妇幼保健院)乳腺科

三阴性乳腺癌 淋巴结转移 列线图

2024

江苏医药
江苏省人民医院(南京医科大学第一附属医院)

江苏医药

影响因子:0.707
ISSN:0253-3685
年,卷(期):2024.50(3)
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