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高速铁路开通对区域经济发展影响实证分析

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为探究高速铁路对不同区域经济影响作用的差异性及原因,以兰新(兰州市—乌鲁木齐市)高铁和哈大(哈尔滨市—大连市)高铁为研究对象,从实证视角出发,采用双重差分模型分析高速铁路开通对沿线区域人均国内生产总值(GDP)的影响.对 2010-2020 年高铁沿线城市的经济数据进行分析得到:兰新高铁的开通使得沿线区域人均 GDP增长 18 000 元,而哈大高铁则抑制沿线区域的经济发展;具体到省份,兰新高铁对甘肃省的经济促进作用达到 19 000 元,而哈大高铁使得黑龙江的人均 GDP下降 2 400 元;辽宁省铁岭县、开原市和昌图县的边缘化是哈大高铁开通后辽宁省经济增长不显著的主要原因,而去掉三座城市后的人均 GDP 增长达到 13 000 元.实证结果表明,高速铁路的开通对沿线区域的经济发展既有正面影响也有负面影响,在区位优势和生产要素流动作用下,增强大城市的虹吸效应,使得不同城市获取的经济效益存在较大差异.
Empirical analysis of the impact of high-speed railway opening on regional economic development
To explore the differences and causes of the impact of high-speed railways on different regional economies,this paper took the Lanzhou-Xinjiang(Lanzhou City-Urumqi City)high-speed railway and the Harbin-Dalian(Harbin City-Dalian City)high-speed railway as the research objects.From an empirical perspective,a difference-in-differences model was utilized to analyze the impact of high-speed railways opening on the Gross Domestic Product per capita(GDP)of the region along the line.Using the economic data of the cities along the high-speed railways from 2010 to 2020,the analysis obtained that the opening of the Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed railway had made the per capita GDP of the region along the line increase by ¥18 000,while the Harbin-Dalian high-speed railway had inhibited the economic development of the region along the line.Specifically for the provinces,the economic promotion effect of the Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed railway in Gansu Province had reached ¥19 000,while the Harbin-Dalian high-speed railway had reduced the per capita GDP of Heilongjiang Province by ¥2 400.The main reason for the insignificant economic growth of Liaoning Province after the opening of the Harbin-Dalian high-speed railway is the marginalization of Tieling County,Kaiyuan City,and Changtu County in Liaoning province.After removing the three cities,the per capita GDP of Liaoning Province growth reached ¥13 000.The empirical results show that the opening of high-speed railways has both positive and negative effects on the economic development of the regions along the route.Under the influence of location advantages and the flow of production factors,the siphoning effect of kernel cities is enhanced,which makes the economic benefits obtained by different cities quite different.

traffic and transportation economyregional economicsdifference-in-differences modelhigh-speed railwayrailway transportationquasi-natural experiment

薛锋、施政、曾与、王朝阳、王妗

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西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,成都 611756

西南交通大学 综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都 611756

上海市政工程设计研究总院(集团)有限公司,上海 200092

中铁上海设计院集团有限公司,上海 200070

无锡地铁运营有限公司,江苏 无锡 214000

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交通运输经济 区域经济 双重差分模型 高速铁路 铁路运输 准自然实验

教育部人文社会科学研究项目四川省哲学社会科学规划项目"四川统计发展"专项成都市软科学研究项目

21YJCZH192SC23TJ0382023-RK00-00166-ZF

2024

10.19348/j.cnki.issn1008-5696.2024.03.008

交通科技与经济
黑龙江工程学院

交通科技与经济

影响因子：0.862
ISSN：1008-5696
年,卷(期)：2024.26(3)
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