首页|基于CNL的轨道站点停车换乘选择行为分析

基于CNL的轨道站点停车换乘选择行为分析

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研究轨道站点停车换乘选择行为,分析出行者选择停车换乘出行的影响因素,可进一步改善设施运营状况与优化设施配置.选取南京市轨道站点作为研究对象,通过采集轨道站点停车换乘设施的使用情况,从个人属性、出行属性及停车换乘意向3个方面对设施使用者的停车换乘选择行为进行调查.分析停车换乘选择行为的影响因素并选取9项特征变量,考虑出行者换乘方式、时间、距离,选择换乘便捷度和换乘次数进一步分析出行者停车换乘选择行为.分别以换乘便捷度和换乘次数为上层巢构建交叉巢式Logit模型,对比分析不同情况下出行者选择停车换乘出行的影响因素差异,揭示特征变量对站点选择和出行方式选择的影响.研究结果表明:换乘便捷度和换乘次数为CNL模型上层巢的参数结果存在差异,以换乘便捷度为CNL模型上层巢的结果中,收入、出行目的和停车时间的参数绝对值较大,分别为0.467,0.359,0.454;以换乘次数为CNL模型上层巢的结果中,绝对值较大的则是收入、出行目的和出行次数,分别为0.550,0.579,0.642,对比发现收入和出行目的对出行者选择停车换乘的影响较大.由模型中下层选择枝对上层巢的隶属度估计值可以发现,换乘便捷度适度增加或换乘次数适度减少的情形下,"停车换乘(P&R)"出行方式的选择枝隶属度最高,分别为0.399,0.464,出行者会更倾向于选择停车换乘.以换乘便捷度和换乘次数为上层巢构建的CNL模型较巢式Logit模型和多项Logit模型精度提升约10%,在不同换乘便捷度和换乘次数情况下出行者对不同影响因素具有差异化敏感程度.
An Analysis of Park and Ride Choice Behavior around Rail Stations Based on Cross-Nested Logit Model
This study aims to optimize the configuration and operation of park and ride(P&R)facilities around rail stations by investigating traveler choice behavior at rail stations in Nanjing.The data on P&R facility usage was col-lected,and a survey focusing on three primary aspects was conducted:personal characteristics,travel characteris-tics,and P&R intentions.Utilizing this data,nine key variables influencing P&R choice behavior were identified.The study incorporates factors such as transfer mode,time,and distance to examine the nuances of traveler choices.Cross-nested Logit(CNL)models with transfer convenience and times as the primary nests were developed to analyze these behaviors under varying conditions.The analysis reveals that income and travel purpose significantly impact P&R choice,with the magnitude of these effects varying between models prioritizing transfer convenience versus those emphasizing transfer times.When transfer convenience is the upper nest of the CNL model,parameters for income,trav-el purpose,and parking duration exhibit relatively significant absolute values,namely 0.467,0.359,and 0.454 respective-ly.Conversely,when transfer frequency serves as the upper nest of the CNL model,income,travel purpose,and trip fre-quency demonstrate relatively substantial absolute values,namely 0.550,0.579,and 0.642 respectively.The member-ship probabilities within the CNL models indicate that travelers are more likely to opt for P&R when transfer conve-nience moderately increases or transfer frequency moderately decreases,with the highest membership degrees being 0.399 and 0.464,respectively.This suggests a preference for balanced transfer conditions.Furthermore,the CNL mod-els demonstrate an approximately 10%improvement in prediction accuracy over nested and multiple Logit models,underscoring their efficacy in capturing travelers'sensitivities to different transfer scenarios.

urban rail transitpark and ridechoice behaviorcross-nested Logit model

朱震军、徐逸清、施非凡、马健霄、孙静瑞

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南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院 南京 210037

城市轨道交通 停车换乘 选择行为 交叉巢式Logit模型

国家自然科学基金青年基金江苏省高等学校哲学社会科学研究一般项目

519081142020SJA0125

2024

交通信息与安全
武汉理工大学 交通计算机应用信息网

交通信息与安全

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.598
ISSN:1674-4861
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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