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Development and application of traffic accident density estimation models using kernel density estimation

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  • NSTL
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  • 维普
Traffic accident frequency has been decreasing in Japan in recent years. Nevertheless, many accidents still occur on residential roads. Area-wide traffic calming measures including Zone 30, which discourages traffic by setting a speed limit of 30 km/h in resi-dential areas, have been implemented. However, no objective implementation method has been established. Development of a model for traffic accident density estimation explained by GIS data can enable the determination of dangerous areas objectively and easily, indi-cating where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially. This study examined the relations between traffic accidents and city characteristics, such as popu-lation, road factors, and spatial factors. A model was developed to estimate traffic accident density. Kernel density estimation (KDE) techniques were used to assess the relations efficiently. Besides, 16 models were developed by combining accident locations, accident types, and data types. By using them, the applicability of traffic accident density estimation models was examined. Results obtained using Spearman rank correlation show high co-efficients between the predicted number and the actual number. The model can indicate the relative accident risk in cities. Results of this study can be used for objective deter-mination of areas where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially, even if sufficient traffic accident data are not available.

Traffic safetyKernel density estimation (KDE)HotspotsZone 30

Seiji Hashimoto、Syuji Yoshiki、Ryoko Saeki、Yasuhiro Mimura、Ryosuke Ando、Shutaro Nanba

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Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University, Okayama 700-0807, Japan

Department of Civil Engineering, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka 814-0180, Japan

Fukuyama Consultants Co. Ltd., Fukuoka 812-0013, Japan

International Development Consultants Co. Ltd., Aichi 460-0008, Japan

Toyota Transportation Research Institute, Aichi 471-0024, Japan

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2016

交通运输工程学报(英文版)

交通运输工程学报(英文版)

CSTPCD
ISSN：2095-7564
年,卷(期)：2016.(3)
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