首页|基于偏联系数的高速公路碰撞安全风险态势评估

基于偏联系数的高速公路碰撞安全风险态势评估

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在过去的碰撞研究中,主要关注交通流、恶劣天气等因素,对线形指标探究较少.因此,亟需更全面的指标对碰撞风险的评估.为评估高速公路碰撞风险、探究风险动态变化趋势,提出基于五元偏联系数法的碰撞安全风险评估,进而弥补了高速公路风险评估碰撞风险的缺失,完善了高速公路评价体系,对风险指标和趋向变化进行了动态预测.首先,从驾驶员、车辆、道路、交通环境以及其他因素的角度出发,构建包含15 个指标的交通风险评估指标体系,考虑到单一赋权方法存在的不足,运用层次分析法与改进变异系数法组合赋权;其次,以河北省某高速公路 6 个包含丰富线形数据的路段作为分析案例,运用模型对其安全风险态势进行评估.
Highway Collision Safety Risk Situation Assessment Based on the Number of Deviation Connections
In the past,collisions were mostly focused on factors such as traffic flow and bad weather,and less were explored on linear indicators.Therefore,there is an urgent need for more comprehensive indicators to assess the impact risk.In order to evaluate the highway collision risk and explore the dynamic change trend of the risk,this study proposed a collision safety risk assessment based on the five-element partial correlation number method,which made up for the lack of collision risk in the highway risk assessment,improved the highway evaluation system,and dynamically predicted the risk index and trend change.Firstly,from the perspectives of drivers,vehicles,roads,traffic environment and other factors,a traffic risk assessment index system with 15 indicators was constructed.Considering the shortcomings of the single weighting method,the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and improved coefficient of variation method(ICVM)was used for weighting.Then,six sections of a highway in Hebei Province containing rich linear data were taken as analysis cases,and the model was used to evaluate its safety risk situation.

Five-dollar partial contact numberImproved coefficient of variation methodSecurity risksRisk profileFreeway

刘爽

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河北高速公路集团有限公司,石家庄 050081

五元偏联系数 改进变异系数法 安全风险 风险态势 高速公路

2024

交通与运输
上海市交通工程学会

交通与运输

影响因子:0.342
ISSN:1671-3400
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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