Tour Based Urban Freight Vehicle Distribution Forecasting Method
To solve the problem of converting freight commodity distribution to vehicle distribution in urban freight modelling,an urban freight model framework overall considering delivery demand and tour characteristics is proposed.Using discrete choice theory,the tour type choice model used to analyze the generation of each type of travel chain from the delivery demand and the destination choice model used to analyze the destination of each trip on the tours are built,and finally the freight vehicle trip distribution is obtained.Taking freight delivery from northwest logistics park to urban area in Shanghai for example,model parameters are estimated and the number of vehicle tours and the freight vehicle trip distribution are predicted.The selective probability of tour type and destination are obtained through aggregation of individual choice.Compared with the revealed value.It is concluded that the model has a good accuracy.
Urban freight trafficFreight vehicle toursDiscrete choiceTour type choiceDestination choice
万方数据
维普
