基于分层负二项模型的山区高速公路隧道交通安全分析
Traffic Safety Analysis of Mountainous Freeway Tunnel Based on Hierarchical Negative Binomial Model
叶斯哈提·阿扎提 1王雪松 1张学芳 1周朝飞 2万瑶2
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海 201804
- 2. 中交资产管理有限公司 贵州区域管理总部,贵州 551200
- 折叠
摘要
为分析山区高速公路隧道路段的几何设计、交通运行和环境因素对事故频次的影响,通过采集36 个隧道路段的多源数据,在贝叶斯框架下构建分层负二项模型分析隧道事故频次.结果表明,长隧道路段更容易发生事故,隧道入口至中间路段事故更多,事故频次随路段曲率和坡度变化率、日均交通流量和大雾天数增加而显著上升,路面抗滑性能越差,事故越多.研究为交通管理部门制定隧道安全改善措施提供理论依据.
Abstract
In order to analyze the impact of geometric design,traffic operation,and environmental factors on the frequency of crashes in mountainous freeway tunnels,data from 36 tunnel sections were collected,and a hierarchical negative binomial model was constructed within a Bayesian framework to analyze tunnel crash frequency.The results show that long tunnel sections are more prone to crashes,with more crashes occurring from the tunnel entrance to the middle section.Crash frequency significantly increases with greater changes in road curvature and slope,higher average daily traffic flow,and more foggy days.Additionally,poorer road skid resistance leads to more crashes.The study provides a theoretical basis for traffic management departments to develop safety improvement measures for tunnel sections.
关键词
山区高速公路/隧道/事故频次/分层负二项模型Key words
Mountainous freeway/Tunnel/Crash frequency/Hierarchical negative binomial model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据