Prediction of the potential suitable distribution areas of Monilinia fructicola in China under climate change
Monilinia fructicola,causal agent of brown rot,is one of the most important fungal pathogens of stone fruit.M.fructicola is a quarantined pathogen in China,causing significant production losses and ecological losses.In this study,the optimized Maxent model and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of M.fructicola in China under different climate scenarios in the present and future,in order to reducing the risk of the spread of the disease under future climate change.The results showed that the variance of temperature change(bio4),the average temperature of the hottest season(bio10),the precipitation of the driest month(bio14),and the variance of precipitation change(bio15)were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of M.fructicola.Under the current climate conditions,the total suitable distribution area of M.fructicola in China is 3.64×106 km2,accounting for 38.12%of total land area of China;the highly suitable areas are mainly distributed in Yunnan,central Guizhou,southern Hunan,Zhejiang,southern Anhui,southern Gansu,southern Shaanxi,and Hebei.Under the two future climate scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585),the total suitable area of the pathogen in China will decrease,but the area of low suitable area will increase.In addition,the centroid of the suitable area under both climate scenarios in 2041-2060 tends to migrate from Chongqing to the southwest.
climate changeMonilinia fructicolaMaxEnt modelsuitable distribution areacentroid
万方数据
维普
