首页|长三角地区经济发展对城市韧性的门槛特征分析及实证检验

长三角地区经济发展对城市韧性的门槛特征分析及实证检验

扫码查看
利用长三角地区41 市域2005-2020 年的面板数据,通过构建门槛回归模型实证检验经济发展与城市韧性的非线性关系.研究结果表明:随着门槛变量所处阶段的不同,长三角地区经济发展对城市韧性的影响并非总是呈现简单的线性递增关系,具体表现为基于经济发展水平的"左拖尾倒U型"双重门槛特征、基于交通便利程度的"右拖尾倒U型"双重门槛特征及基于政府调控力度的阶梯式增长型变化关系.对此,提出以下政策建议:在思想观念上,正确认识长三角不同区域经济发展水平同城市韧性之间存在的资源错配问题,尽量避免仅凭主观判断而盲目进行经济扩张活动;在发展政策上,长三角各市需及时做好宏观政策的灵活转变,做到因地制宜、因时制宜;在发展保障上,地方政府需积极发挥主导作用,加大对地区企业创新的财政支持,以创新引领资源循环型经济和城市韧性的发展.
Analysis of the Threshold Characteristics of Economic Development on Urban Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Region and Empirical Tests
This article empirically examines the non-linear relationship between economic development and urban resilience by constructing a threshold regression model using panel data of 41 municipalities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2020.The results show that the impact of economic development on urban resili-ence in the Yangtze River Delta region does not always show a simple linear increasing relationship with the dif-ferent stages of the threshold variables,specifically the"left trailing inverted U-shaped"double threshold char-acteristic based on the level of economic development,the"right trailing inverted U-shaped"double threshold characteristic based on the accessibility,and the"right trailing inverted U-shaped"double threshold characteris-tic.The double threshold characteristics of"trailing inverted U"based on the level of economic development,"right trailing inverted U"based on the accessibility,and the stepped growth relationship based on the strength of government regulation.In this regard,the following policy recommendations are proposed:in terms of ideology,it is necessary to correctly understand the problem of resources mismatch between the level of economic develop-ment and urban resilience in different regions of the Yangtze River Delta,and to avoid blind economic expansion activities based on subjective judgments alone;in terms of development policies,the cities in the Yangtze River Delta need to make timely and flexible changes in macro policies,so as to adapt to local conditions and time;in terms of development guarantee,local governments need to actively play a leading role,increase financial sup-port for regional enterprises'innovation,and lead the development of resources recycling-based economy and ur-ban resilience with innovation.

economic developmenturban resiliencethreshold effect

袁家德、苗升翼

展开 >

安徽建筑大学 公共管理学院,安徽 合肥 230022

安徽建筑大学 建筑房地产法律研究中心,安徽 合肥 230022

经济发展 城市韧性 门槛效应

安徽省科研编制计划项目安徽省哲学社会规划青年项目安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题

2023AH050162AHSKQ2021D2052021CX046

2024

黑龙江工业学院学报(综合版)
鸡西大学

黑龙江工业学院学报(综合版)

影响因子:0.211
ISSN:1672-6758
年,卷(期):2024.24(1)
  • 18