首页|融资能力、偿债能力与房地产企业违约风险——基于房企实际违约事件的实证分析

融资能力、偿债能力与房地产企业违约风险——基于房企实际违约事件的实证分析

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试从投资者的角度出发,使用2017 年以来房地产行业的实际违约信息,以 2017-2022 年A股及港股上市的139 家房地产公司为研究样本,研究企业融资能力、偿债能力对房地产企业违约风险的影响.实证研究发现,企业的融资能力、短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力对房企违约风险具有显著影响.具体地,反映融资能力的综合融资成本上升会显著增加房地产企业违约风险,短期偿债能力与长期偿债能力的提升则有利于降低违约风险.此外,非国有企业对融资能力和短期偿债能力更为敏感.希望能够对投资者的决策选择,房地产金融风险调控的政策选择以及评级机构的模型选择提供新视角和实证证据.
Financing Ability,Debt Paying Ability and Real Estate Enterprises Default Risk——Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Based on Actual Company Default Events
From the perspective of investors,this paper uses the actual default information from the real es-tate industry since 2017,and takes 139 real estate companies listed in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2022 as research samples to study the impact of corporate financing ability and repayment ability on the default risk of real estate enterprises.The empirical study finds that the financing ability,short-term solvency and long-term solvency of enterprises have significant impact on the default risk of real estate enterprises.Specif-ically,the increase of comprehensive financing cost reflecting financing ability will significantly increase the de-fault risk of real estate enterprises;the improvement of short-term solvency and long-term solvency are conducive to reducing default risk.In addition,non-state-owned enterprises are more sensitive to financing capacity and short-term solvency.The conclusion of this study provides a new perspective and empirical evidence for the deci-sion-making of investors,the policy choice of real estate financial risk control and the model choice of rating a-gencies.

real estate enterprisesrisk of defaultfinancing abilitydebt-servicing ability

谢绵陛、梁冰华、李昱帆、周逢源、任昱衡

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集美大学 财经学院,福建 厦门 361021

集美大学 数字产业学院,福建 厦门 361021

建潘鲲鹭物联网技术研究院(厦门)有限公司,福建 厦门 361199

金牌厨柜家居科技股份有限公司,福建 厦门 361199

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房地产企业 违约风险 融资能力 偿债能力

国家社会科学基金项目厦门市科技补助项目

20BJY2382023CXY0308

2024

黑龙江工业学院学报(综合版)
鸡西大学

黑龙江工业学院学报(综合版)

影响因子:0.211
ISSN:1672-6758
年,卷(期):2024.24(1)
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