Comprehensive Modeling Method for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Satellite System Based on DPRA
Satellite is a typical complex system.Every basic event produced in the operation process of the complex system contains three factors:human,machine and environment.In order to better characterize the dynamic behavior and complex process of the system,especially the identification and model fusion of human factor risk factors,we need to develop a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment modeling method and integrate human factor reliability into it.Therefore,this paper proposes a comprehensive modeling method for probabilistic risk assessment of complex system based on DPRA.A comprehensive framework based on DPRA and IDAC is constructed to integrate human factors into the DPRA model,and the subsequent comprehensive modeling of probability risk assessment is completed based on this framework.Then,a comprehensive modeling method based on process decomposition is proposed,which firstly defines the task and structure of the system,and then completes the description and qualitative and quantitative analysis of dynamic events by using logic and time process decomposition.Finally,taking the assembly process of a satellite as an example,the proposed method is used for risk assessment.The results show that the proposed method has certain engineering applicability and has certain reference significance for the identification and evaluation of risk factors of aerospace probes.
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维普
