Based on inter-provincial panel data,this study constructs a panel data model of intermediary effects,and empirically analyzes the direct and intermediary effects of agricultural credit guarantee and rural finan-cial supply on the increase of household income by using step-up regression method and Sobel test method.The empirical study finds that both agricultural credit guarantee and rural financial supply have a significant promoting effect on the increase of household income,and in the process of agricultural credit guarantee affecting the increase of household income,the total effect of agricultural credit guarantee on the increase of household income is 0.091,of which the direct effect is 0.067,and the intermediary effect through rural financial supply is 0.024.The media-ting effect accounted for 26.37%of the total effect,and the benchmark estimation results passed the stability test and endogeneity test.This indicates that agricultural credit guarantee has a significant promoting effect on the in-come increase of rural households,and in the process of agricultural credit guarantee driving the income increase of rural households,the supply of rural financial credit plays a certain promoting role,but the relatively low proportion of intermediary effect indicates that agricultural credit guarantee policies have not fully coordinated with rural finan-cial policies to carry out agriculture-related credit financing guarantee services.As a result,credit support for rural households is relatively limited.At the same time,the regional heterogeneity analysis shows that agricultural credit guarantee has a significant direct effect on the increase of household income in the eastern region,and it plays a role in the increase of household income through the intermediary effect of rural financial supply.The direct and indirect effects of agricultural credit guarantee in central China are not significant.The total effect of agricultural credit guar-antee in western China is weak and mainly depends on the support of rural financial supply intermediation effect.
维普
万方数据