Cause Analysis of Convective Rainstorm in Gandong and its Missing Prediction
Based on intensive observation data,radar,and satellite images,the causes of a local sud-den convective rainstorm process in Gandong on June 29 ,2016 and its missing prediction were ana-lyzed. The results showed that,this was a typical low-level jet with the vertical suction effect of the subtropical high-pressure edge of the process of heavy precipitation,which the most important reason was the convective precipitation induced by the dew point. However,there was a good correlation be-tween the strong precipitation area and the intensity of mesoscale convective cloud,strong radar re-flectivity factor and mesocyclone. In addition,the main cause of the rainstorm process missing predic-tion was that the analysis of the low-level jet nucleus and the high-level divergence was not deep e-nough,the model predictions with large errors were not constantly revised,as well as the small-scale physical data and radar satellite images were not fully used,etc.
MCSconvective rainstormjet streakupper divergencemissing prediction cause
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
