Impact of Precipitation on Outdoor Performance Activities and Prediction Analysis
In view of the impact of weather on the large-scale outdoor live show of"Jingdezhen Memory",a questionnaire was developed and analyzed,and a threshold of precipitation intensity that has an impact on large-scale outdoor performances was proposed,and the climatic characteris-tics of precipitation impact and the corresponding forecast focus were analyzed.The main conclu-sions are as follows:1)A questionnaire was designed to record the impact of weather on outdoor performances,which can be divided into four levels:appropriate,general,inappropriate and ex-tremely inappropriate.2)The impact of precipitation is divided into continuous precipitation and in-termittent precipitation.When the hourly rainfall intensity during the performance period is around 2 mm or above,and the cumulative rainfall is 3 mm or above,there is obvious adverse impact.Ac-cording to the climate profile affected by precipitation,the annual distribution is uneven,mainly from March to July,accounting for nearly 80％or more,while few from September to December.3)The precipitation echo is mainly divided into large-scale floc echo,large-scale stratiform cloud precipitation echo,strong convective echo cluster or echo short band,squall line,strong echo cell,etc.The early warning rate of the influence of stratiform cloud precipitation echo and flocculent echo on the performance is high,and the prediction is less difficult;The false alarm rate,false alarm rate and false alarm rate of convective precipitation echo are higher.When the main body of the strong convection echo affects Nanchang,Jinxian and other places,the warning time is 2 h;When moved to Poyang county,it may have an impact on the performance scene after 1 h.All these provide a ref-erence for better professional meteorological services.
outdoor performanceprecipitationmeteorological service
万方数据
维普
