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基于灰色系统模型的县域使用林地影响因素分析及需求预测

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为分析县域尺度上使用林地的影响因素,基于灰色系统模型选取宁洱县"十三五"期间林地管理及社会经济数据,研究林地资源供需关系及影响因素。结果表明,林地需求与县域GDP、人口密度、空闲地面积、建成区面积的关联度均大于 0。6,说明这 4 个指标对林地需求产生了显著影响。通过预测和拟合计算得到后验差比值为 0。242 3,结果具有一定可信性,可为林地管理提供参考。
Analysis and Prediction of County Forestry Land Demands based on Grey System Model
In order to analyze the influencing factors of forest land use at the county level,this article selects forest land management and socio-economic data from Ning'er county during the 13th Five Year Plan period based on a grey system model,and studies the supply-demand relationship and in-fluencing factors of forest land resources.The results show that the correlation between forest land demand and county GDP,population density,idle land area and built-up area is greater than 0.6,indicating that these four indicators have a significant impact on forest land demand.Through pre-diction and fitting calculation,the posterior difference ratio is 0.242 3,and the results have certain credibility,which can provide reference for forest land management.

grey system modeluse of forest landdemand forecast

张蓉、钮子鹏、马国强、巨正平、胡辉

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国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院,650031,昆明

宁洱县林业和草原局, 665000,云南,普洱

灰色系统模型 使用林地 需求预测

国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院科技项目

2023-008

2024

江西科学
江西省科学院

江西科学

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1001-3679
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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