江西科学2024,Vol.42Issue(1) :164-168.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2024.01.027

基于灰色系统模型的县域使用林地影响因素分析及需求预测

Analysis and Prediction of County Forestry Land Demands based on Grey System Model

张蓉 钮子鹏 马国强 巨正平 胡辉
江西科学2024,Vol.42Issue(1) :164-168.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2024.01.027

基于灰色系统模型的县域使用林地影响因素分析及需求预测

Analysis and Prediction of County Forestry Land Demands based on Grey System Model

张蓉 1钮子鹏 1马国强 1巨正平 1胡辉2
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作者信息

  • 1. 国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院,650031,昆明
  • 2. 宁洱县林业和草原局, 665000,云南,普洱
  • 折叠

摘要

为分析县域尺度上使用林地的影响因素,基于灰色系统模型选取宁洱县"十三五"期间林地管理及社会经济数据,研究林地资源供需关系及影响因素.结果表明,林地需求与县域GDP、人口密度、空闲地面积、建成区面积的关联度均大于 0.6,说明这 4 个指标对林地需求产生了显著影响.通过预测和拟合计算得到后验差比值为 0.242 3,结果具有一定可信性,可为林地管理提供参考.

Abstract

In order to analyze the influencing factors of forest land use at the county level,this article selects forest land management and socio-economic data from Ning'er county during the 13th Five Year Plan period based on a grey system model,and studies the supply-demand relationship and in-fluencing factors of forest land resources.The results show that the correlation between forest land demand and county GDP,population density,idle land area and built-up area is greater than 0.6,indicating that these four indicators have a significant impact on forest land demand.Through pre-diction and fitting calculation,the posterior difference ratio is 0.242 3,and the results have certain credibility,which can provide reference for forest land management.

关键词

灰色系统模型/使用林地/需求预测

Key words

grey system model/use of forest land/demand forecast

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基金项目

国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院科技项目(2023-008)

出版年

2024
江西科学
江西省科学院

江西科学

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1001-3679
被引量1
参考文献量15
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