基于SD模型的南昌市可持续发展多情景模拟
Multi-scenario Simulation of Sustainable Development in Nanchang City Based on SD Model
李鑫1
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心,210036,南京
- 折叠
摘要
为模拟南昌市不同发展情景下的可持续发展变化态势及特征,并为其可持续发展决策提供参考,运用系统动力学的原理和方法,构建了包括经济、社会、资源、环境和政策 5 个子系统的南昌市可持续发展评估模型.结果表明,至 2030 年,南昌市的城市综合可持续性呈现上升趋势,但资源利用和生态环境子系统可持续性增长较慢.综合协调情景模式为南昌市未来较优的发展选择,今后可通过以高质量发展为导向,调整产业结构,加大研发投入,提高资源利用水平,加大生态环境保护与综合整治力度等工作,可极大促进综合协调情景下的南昌市可持续发展.
Abstract
With the help of the principles and methods of system dynamics,this paper constructs the evaluation model of sustainable development of Nanchang city,which includes five subsystems:e-conomy,society,resources,environment and policy to simulate the changing situation and charac-teristics of sustainable development under different development scenarios in Nanchang,so as to pro-vide reference for its sustainable development decision-making.The results show that by 2030,the urban comprehensive sustainability of Nanchang shows an upward trend,but the sustainable growth of resource utilization and eco-environment subsystem increased slowly.The comprehensive coordi-nation scenario model is a better choice for the future development of Nanchang city.In the future,by taking high-quality development as the guidance,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing R&D investment,improving the level of resource utilization,strengthening eco-environmental pro-tection and comprehensive renovation,it can greatly promote the sustainable development of Nan-chang city under the comprehensive and coordinated scenario.
关键词
系统动力学/可持续发展/多情景模拟/南昌市Key words
system dynamics/sustainable development/multi-scenario simulation/Nanchang city引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据