Analysis of Rainfall Thresholds for Landslides in Jiangxi Province Based on Universal Rainfall Monitoring Instruments
Rainfall events are oftentimes the important triggering cause for landslides.In this paper,the rainfall information of 416 rainfall-induced landslides in Jiangxi province was analyzed,consid-ering the role of previous effective rainfall.Based on these datasets,accumulated precipitation-rain-fall duration(E-D)thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-rainfall duration(I-D)thresholds for different probabilities of occurrence,corresponding to various early warning levels,were calculated using a Frequentist method,and the model reliability was verified.The following results are ob-tained:previous rainfall has a significant impact on the occurrence of landslide,and the rainfall-in-duced landslides in Jiangxi province are mainly triggered by rainfall within 10 days.Four early warn-ing levels can be used to monitor landslide disasters,and the rainfall threshold curves can be deter-mined according to the occurrence probabilities of 5%,20%,50%and 80%,respectively.The mean rainfall intensity-rainfall duration(I-D)threshold model has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for rainfall-induced landslide early warning in Jiangxi province.The research can provide guidance for government departments in landslide early warning and effectively reduce the harm of landslides.
landslideaccumulated precipitationrainfall durationmonitoring warningthreshold model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
