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局部饱和层地下水重力效应的水文地质参数全局敏感性分析

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为了分析局部水文重力效应对哪些参数敏感,基于虚拟仿真抽水试验模拟具有解析解的局部水文模型,进行水文地质参数的全局敏感性分析,可定量研究各个参数对模拟水文重力效应的直接影响及参数间相互耦合作用的间接影响。研究使用Sobol法,针对特定水文场景对局部饱和层地下水重力效应的水文地质参数进行全局敏感性分析,结果表明:1)研究案例中,储水系数对于局部饱和层地下水重力效应影响最大,渗透率次之,仪器距离初始水平面的距离影响最小。各参数间交互敏感度较低,"异参同效"性较低。2)参数的变化区间选择应根据现实情况选取适当的范围,选择不当的变化范围对敏感性分析具有较大影响。3)当样本达到一定数量时,样本量的增加对其全局敏感性分析结果并无较大影响,应选择合适的样本量以提高工作效率。研究结果为后续挑选重力敏感参数组,进行基于合成重力观测约束下的水文地质多参数反演以及模拟不同多参数组合的反演结果提供了基础。
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrogeological Parameters on the Local Gravity Effect of Groundwater in Saturated Layers
In order to analyze the sensitivity of hydrogeological parameters to the local groundwater gravity effect,a global sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters was conducted based on a simple local hydrological model with analytical solutions,which simulated the virtual pumping test.The direct influence of each parameter on the simulated hydrogravity effect and the indirect influence of the coupling effect among parameters were quantitatively studied.The Sobol method was used to conduct the global sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters for the local saturated layer groundwater gravity effect under specific hydrological scenarios.The results showed that:1)In the case study,the storage coefficient had the greatest impact on the local saturated layer groundwater gravity effect,followed by the permeability,and the distance between the instrument and the initial water level had the least impact.The interactive sensitivity among parameters was low,and the"dif-ferent parameters,same effect"phenomenon was weak.2)The selection of the parameter variation range should be based on the actual situation and an appropriate range should be chosen.The im-proper selection of the variation range had a great impact on the sensitivity analysis.3)Different sample sizes were selected for the analysis,when the samples had reached a certain number,the in-crease of the sample size had no significant impact on the results of the global sensitivity analysis,so the appropriate sample size should be selected to improve the work efficiency.The research results are provided for the subsequent selection of gravity-sensitive parameter groups,the multi-parameter inversion of hydrogeology based on the synthetic gravity observation constraints,and the simulation of the inversion results of different parameter combinations.

global sensitivity analysissobol methodgroundwater gravity effecthydrogeological pa-rameterslocal saturated layer

王万豪、贺前钱

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东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,330013,南昌

全局敏感性分析 Sobol法 地下水重力效应 水文地质参数 局部饱和层

国家自然科学基金江西省数字国土重点实验室开放基金

42004072DLLJ202211

2024

江西科学
江西省科学院

江西科学

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1001-3679
年,卷(期):2024.42(3)
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