江西抚州市雷暴大风气候特征与潜势预报方法
Climatic Characteristics and Potential Prediction Methods of Thunderstorms and Gales in Fuzhou City,Jiangxi Province
石涛 1郑劲光 2廖恒 1涂峰1
作者信息
- 1. 南城县气象局,344700,江西,抚州
- 2. 抚州市气象台,344100,江西,抚州
- 折叠
摘要
根据抚州市各国家站的观测数据、典型案例的雷达回波和NCEP再分析资料,采用最小二乘法、M-K突变检验法等方法对抚州市近 62 年的雷暴大风天气进行研究分析.结果表明,抚州市雷暴大风天气具有空间分布不均的特点,各站点雷暴大风天气日数总体随时间减少,1960-1978 年间下降趋势显著,春季月出现次数最多,夏季次之,秋季则大幅减少,冬季无区域性雷暴大风天气.雷暴大风时雷达反射率因子主要呈现弓形回波和超级单体回波两类,回波顶高普遍在 8～12 km,伴有冰雹的超级单体可伸展到 14 km以上.
Abstract
Based on the observation data of various national stations,radar echoes of typical cases,and NCEP reanalysis data in Fuzhou city,the least squares method,M-K mutation test method,and other methods were used to study and analyze the thunderstorm and strong wind weather in Fuzhou city in the past 62 years.The results show that the thunderstorm and strong wind weather in Fuzhou city has the characteristic of uneven spatial distribution.The number of thunderstorm and strong wind weather days at each station generally decreases over time,with a significant downward trend from 1960 to 1978.The most frequent occurrences occur in spring,followed by summer,and a significant decrease in autumn.There is no regional thunderstorm and strong wind weather in win-ter.During thunderstorms and strong winds,the radar reflectivity factor mainly presents two types:bow shaped echoes and supercell echoes.The echo top height is generally between 8～12 km,and supercell echoes accompanied by hail can extend to over 14 km.
关键词
雷暴大风/抚州市/预报方法Key words
thunderstorm gale/Fuzhou city/forecasting methods引用本文复制引用
基金项目
抚州市气象局自筹经费科研项目(FZQXKY202105)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据