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南昌市城市热岛效应时空变化特征及模拟预测研究

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本文以南昌市为研究对象,利用Landsat系列遥感数据,结合大气校正法反演地表温度、构建气温预测GM模型等方法,获取南昌市城市热岛效应时空变化特征,并模拟预测未来的温度变化.结果表明:(1)2005-2021年,南昌市的最高地表温度值上升了25.36℃,最低温度值上升了11.59℃,高温地区呈高度中心聚集化分布.(2)南昌市热岛效应主要集中在人口聚集与高速发展的中心城区,且地表温度呈现以城市建成区为中心向周边扩散降低的趋势.(3)2021年后南昌市的年均温将持续攀升,城市热岛效应问题将愈发严峻.(4)通过分析下垫面类型与地表温度空间分布化之间的关系,得出水域和植被与城市地表温度呈负相关关系,可以在一定程度上改善热岛效应.本研究提出的南昌市城市热岛效应时空变化基础数据与理论依据,为减缓城市热岛效应提供了可行的方法.
Current situation analysis and spatial-temporal changes of urban heat island effect in Nanchang City
The paper took Nanchang City as the research object,used Landsat series remote sensing data,and combined atmospheric correction method to invert surface temperature,construct temperature prediction GM model and other methods,obtain the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban heat island effect in Nanchang City,and simulate and predict future temperature changes.The results showed that:(1)From 2005 to 2021,the highest surface temperature in Nanchang increased by 25.36℃,and the lowest temperature increased by 11.59℃.(2)The heat island effect in Nanchang was mainly concentrated in the central urban area with population aggregation and rapid development,and the surface temperature showed a trend of decreasing from the urban built-up area to the surrounding area.(3)After 2021,the annual average temperature of Nanchang will continue to rise,and the problem of urban heat island effect will become more and more serious.(4)By analyzing the relationship between the type of underlying surface and the spatial distribution of land surface temperature,it was concluded that water and vegetation are negatively correlated with urban land surface temperature,which can improve the heat island effect to a certain extent.The basic data and theoretical basis of the spatial and temporal changes of urban heat island effect in Nanchang City proposed in this study provide a feasible method for slowing down the urban heat island effect.

urban heat island effectNanchang Cityremote sensing imagegrey modeltemperature forecast

柯琳琳、黄子璇、张绿水

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江西农业大学园林与艺术学院,江西南昌 330045

城市热岛效应 南昌市 遥感影像 灰色模型 气温预测

国家自然科学基金江西省社会科学基金江西省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目

3226041822YS08YS22127

2024

南方林业科学
江西省林业科学院,江西省林学会

南方林业科学

影响因子:0.56
ISSN:1006-2505
年,卷(期):2024.52(1)
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