Changes and multi-scenario prediction of land-use carbon storage in Nanchang City
Taking Nanchang City as the research object,based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020,the study coupled the InVEST and PLUS models to explore the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land-use changes and carbon storage in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2020 and under different future scenarios.The results showed that:the main characteristics of land-use change in Nanchang in recent 20 years were the rapid increase of construction land area(+90 166.26 hm2)and the significant decrease of cultivated land area(-84 327.96 hm2).The proportion of land transfer area to total area was 28.45%and 31.51%for the periods from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020,respectively.Among the land-use types that had been transferred,farmland had been transferred out the most,while construction land had been transferred in the most.In the past 20 years,the carbon storage of Nanchang decreased by 7.21×106 t.The conversion of forest land to arable land was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in the first 10 years,while the conversion of arable land to construction land was the dominant factor for the decline of carbon storage in the last 10 years.The spatial distribution of carbon storage was"high in southeast,northwest and west,low in east,north and central".In addition,the carbon storage would decrease respectively by 3.23×106 t,5.08×106 t and 0.32×106 t in 2040 under the scenarios of natural growth,urban development and ecological protection compared with 2020.Ecological protection scenerio contributes to carbon storage balance,and the bordering space in the development of the existing built-up urban area will be the main area where carbon loss occurs.
land-use changecarbon storageInVEST-PLUS modelmulti-scenario predictionNanchang City
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
