首页|2000-2022年间江西省碳固定和碳排放时空变化规律

2000-2022年间江西省碳固定和碳排放时空变化规律

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探究江西省碳固定和碳排放的时空规律,把握其碳平衡态势,有助于全省探寻切实可行的节能减排与增汇路径.基于自然和社会经济数据,采用热点分析法、多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型和局部二元关系分析江西省2000-2022年间碳固定和碳排放的时空分布规律.研究结果表明:2000-2022年间,江西省的碳固定值呈现出中心低、四周高的空间分布格局,相反,碳排放量则呈现中心高、四周低的分布格局;MGWR结果表明,2000年,温度t、GDP、第三产业产值Tiav、人口密度POP与碳固定之间呈显著负相关关系,而降雨量P、第一产业产值Fiav与碳固定总体表现为正相关关系;但到2022年,Tiav与碳固定从负相关转为显著正相关关系,而Fiav与碳固定的关系从正相关转为显著负相关关系;2000-2022年间,江西省碳固定和碳排放之间存在负线性相关、凸形、关系不明确和不显著4种关系.研究结果强调了生态恢复与经济结构转型对碳固定和碳排放的双重影响,为江西省制定有效的减排政策和可持续发展策略提供了重要依据.
Spatial and Temporal Change of Carbon Fixation and Carbon Emission in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2022
Exploring the spatial and space law of carbon fixation and carbon emission in Jiangxi province and grasping its carbon balance situation will help the province to explore a feasible path of energy conservation,emission reduction and energy exchange increase.Based on natural and socioeconomic data,the hotspot analysis method,multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model and local binary relationship were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution rules of carbon fixation and carbon emission in Jiangxi province from 2000 to 2022.The results show that between 2000 and 2022.The carbon fixed value of Jiangxi province presents a spatial distribution pattern of low center and high periphery,opposite,carbon emissions show a distribution pattern of high center and low around.The results of MGWR showed that,in 2000,a significant negative correlation between temperature,GDP,Tiav and POP and carbon fixation,precipitation and Fiav showed a positive correlation with carbon fixation.But by 2022,Tiav and carbon fixation shifted from a negative to a significant positive correlation.The relationship between Fiav and carbon fixation changed from positive correlation to significant negative correlation.From 2000 to 2022,there were four relationships:negative linear correlation,convex shape,unclear and insignificant relationship between carbon fixation and carbon emission in Jiangxi province.The results highlight the dual impact of ecological restoration and economic structure transformation on carbon fixation and carbon emission,and provide an important basis for formulating effective emission reduction policies and sustainable development strategies in Jiangxi province.

carbon fixationcarbon emissionspatial and temporal lawmultiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)driving factorsJiangxi province

吴小红、喻艳菁、谢运生

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南昌市生态环境监测中心,南昌 330038

江西省科学院能源研究所,温室气体核算与碳减排江西省重点实验室,南昌 330096

江西省碳中和研究中心,南昌 330096

碳固定 碳排放 时空规律 多尺度地理加权回归MGWR 驱动因素 江西省

2024

能源研究与管理
江西省能源研究会 江西省科学院能源研究所 江西省经贸委节能技术中心

能源研究与管理

影响因子:0.207
ISSN:1005-7676
年,卷(期):2024.16(4)