农林经济管理学报2025,Vol.24Issue(1) :1-12.DOI:10.16195/j.cnki.cn36-1328/f.2025.01.01

中国粮食产业"三链协同"时空分异特征及驱动因素分析

Spatio-temporal characteristics and factors influencing"three-chain synergy"in China's grain industry

崔宁波 时骄禹 范月圆
农林经济管理学报2025,Vol.24Issue(1) :1-12.DOI:10.16195/j.cnki.cn36-1328/f.2025.01.01

中国粮食产业"三链协同"时空分异特征及驱动因素分析

Spatio-temporal characteristics and factors influencing"three-chain synergy"in China's grain industry

崔宁波 1时骄禹 2范月圆2
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作者信息

  • 1. 东北农业大学 现代农业发展研究中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;东北农业大学 经济管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
  • 2. 东北农业大学 经济管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
  • 折叠

摘要

基于2007-2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用熵权Topsis模型、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、空间计量模型、马尔可夫链模型及地理探测器模型,实证分析粮食产业"三链协同"发展水平、时空分异特征及驱动因素.结果表明:2007-2022年中国粮食产业"三链协同"同比增长62.89%,其中粮食主产区水平最高;粮食产业"三链协同"发展水平总体差异逐渐增大,总体基尼系数由0.281 5提升至0.335 8,区域间存在两极分化现象;粮食产业"三链协同"水平具有空间正相关性,全局莫兰指数介于0.20~0.35,存在空间集聚特征;中国粮食产业"三链协同"水平发展稳定,难以实现"跳跃式"增长;农户资本状况、自然资源禀赋、区域产业结构、政府支持力度等是驱动中国粮食产业"三链协同"的重要因素.据此,建议未来应重点聚焦于突破粮食产业发展格局和地域空间限制,分层次、分区域统筹协调粮食产业"三链协同"发展.

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2022,the entropy weight Topsis model,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,spatial metrology model,Markov chain model and geographical detector model are adopted to analyze the development level,spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and factors driving"three-chain synergy"in China's grain industry.The results show that during 2007-2022,the"three-chain synergy"of China's grain industry increased by 62.89%year-on-year with the main grain producing areas enjoying the highest growth.The overall difference in the development level of"three-chain synergy"in China's grain industry has gradually increased,the overall Gini coefficient has increased from 0.281 5 to 0.335 8,and there exists polarization among the regions.The"three-chain synergy"level of the national grain industry has a positive spatial correlation,and the global Moreland index is between 0.20 and 0.35 with spatial agglomeration characteristics.The"three chain synergy"development of China's grain industry is stable although it is difficult to achieve"jump"growth.Farmers'capital status,natural resource endowment,regional industrial structure,and government support are the key factors driving the"three-chain synergy"in China's grain industry.Therefore,it is suggested that in the future,we should focus on breaking through the development pattern of the grain industry and regional space restrictions and coordinate the"three-chain synergy"development of the grain industry at different levels and sub-regions.

关键词

粮食产业/"三链协同"/高质量发展/动态演进/驱动因素

Key words

grain industry/"three-chain synergy"/high-quality development/dynamic evolution/driving factor

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出版年

2025
农林经济管理学报
江西农业大学

农林经济管理学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.809
ISSN:1671-6523
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