Based on panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020,the study employs the twice-weighted Topsis model,elasticity analysis,and obstacle degree model to empirically analyze food security capabilities and their main influencing factors from the water-energy-food nexus perspective.Additionally,a combined forecasting model is constructed to predict the trends of food security capabilities by 2030.The results show that China's food security capabilities exhibited an overall upward trend from 2013 to 2020,with Xinjiang and Heilongjiang boasting significantly stronger capabilities than other provinces.Elasticity analysis reveals that changes in the per capita cultivated land area index and per capita irrigated area index have relatively substantial impact on food security capabilities.Obstacle degree analysis indicates that the per capita cultivated land area index,per capita irrigated area index,and per capita water resource endowment have high obstacle degrees for food security capabilities.The forecasting results suggest that China's food security capabilities are expected to become favorable in 2030,with strong consistency among the results from various forecasting methods.Based on these findings,it is recommended to strengthen communication and collaboration among water-energy-food management entities,continuously promote green water-saving agriculture and low-carbon agriculture construction,further optimize the layout of the agricultural industry structure,and fully leverage regional natural endowment advantages so as to ensure balanced development of the water-energy-food system.
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