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中国特色农业发展水平的空间格局与动态演进

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基于2010-2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度分析及Markov链分析方法,考察中国特色农业发展水平的空间分布格局和动态演进特征.结果表明:样本观察期内中国特色农业发展水平稳定提升但存在显著空间分布差异,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,且随时间演进不断扩大;中国特色农业发展水平等级分布状态总体相对稳定,存在"俱乐部"趋同现象和较强空间依赖性,水平区间的动态演进以相邻阶段转移为主,难以实现跨越式转移;中国特色农业发展整体呈现向好发展的动态演进特征,但也存在向下转移风险.据此,建议各省份基于区域特色农业资源禀赋,加大特色农业资源优势挖掘力度;强化特色农业科技创新,增强特色农业资源综合利用效果;提高特色农产品竞争力,优化特色农业支撑保障体系,因地制宜推动特色农业高质量发展.
Spatial pattern and dynamic evolution of China's specialty agriculture development
With panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022,the paper measures development level and analyzes spatial patterns and dynamics by using Dagum Gini,Kernel density,and Markov chain methods.The results show that during the observation period,the China's specialty agriculture development level has consistently improved although regional disparities persist.The main source of overall disparity consists in the widening divergence between regions over time.The distribution of development levels is generally stable,showing notable"club"convergence and significant spatial dependence.The predominant mode of dynamic evolution involves transitions between adjacent stages,with leapfrog transitions being exceedingly rare.In conclusion,while China's specialty agriculture development is overall positive,there exists a risk of downward transitions.Therefore,it is recommended that provinces leverage their regional specialty agricultural resource endowments to intensify the exploration of agricultural resource advantages,bolster technological innovation in specialty agriculture,enhance the comprehensive utilization of these resources,improve the competitiveness of specialty agricultural products,optimize the support and guarantee systems for specialty agriculture,and promote high-quality development of specialty agriculture based on local conditions.

specialty agriculturedevelopment levelspatial patterndynamic evolution

戴志强、万俊毅、徐静

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华南农业大学 经济管理学院,广东 广州 510642

特色农业 发展水平 空间格局 分布动态演进

2025

农林经济管理学报
江西农业大学

农林经济管理学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.809
ISSN:1671-6523
年,卷(期):2025.24(1)