Research on Change Trend of Cold Dew Wind Disaster in Jiujiang City from 1970 to 2022
To improve the scientific level of rice cold dew wind disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiujiang,the cold dew wind index was calculated based on the meteorological data of 9 national stations in Jiujiang from 1970 to 2022.This paper studied the change trend of cold dew wind in Jiujiang with the cold dew wind index as the statistical standard,and predicted the cold dew wind index in the next ten years based on the mean generating function.The results show that the high values of the cold dew wind index are concentrated in the western part of Jiujiang(Xiushui and Wuning stations),the north part of Jiujiang(Ruichang station)and the middle part of Jiujiang(De'an station),and the highest value is concentrated in the 1980s.The cold dew wind index of Wuning,Ruichang,and Yongxiu stations shows a significant decreasing trend over time,with the decreasing rates of 3.58/10 a,3.13/10 a and 2.32/10 a.The abrupt change year of the cold dew wind index of Wuning station occurred in 1994,Ruichang and Xiushui stations occurred around 2010,and the other stations occurred in 2020.The cold dew wind index may appear 1～2 small extreme values in the next ten years,which will be concentrated in 2025～2028,and the predicted values of cold dew wind index at Ruichang and Hukou(north),De'an(centre),Xiushui(west)stations are relatively high.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
