气候变暖背景下江西省双季早稻小满寒及高温逼熟气象灾害特征分析
Characteristic Analysis of Grain Buds Cold and Heat-forced Maturity Agrometeorological Disasters of Double-cropping Early Rice in Jiangxi Province under Climate Warming
章起明 1易艳红 1杨林 2汪建军 3郭水连1
作者信息
- 1. 江西省宜春市气象局,江西 宜春 336000
- 2. 江西南昌农业气象试验站,江西 南昌 330200
- 3. 江西省农业气象中心,江西 南昌 330096
- 折叠
摘要
利用1993-2022年江西省11个地市79个国家气象站历年地面气象观测资料,对气候变暖背景下江西省双季早稻小满寒和高温逼熟等气象灾害的发生特征进行了系统分析.结果表明,江西省近30年来分别有80.0%和93.3%的年份发生了不同程度、不同范围的小满寒及高温逼熟灾害;从时间变化上来看,遭受小满寒侵袭的站数随着时间变化呈减少的趋势,其中发生轻度及以上灾害站数的年际变化倾向率为-0.369站/a(P＜0.05),发生重度灾害站数的为-0.102站/a(P＜0.05);发生高温逼熟的站数呈递增的趋势,其中发生轻度及以上灾害站数的年际变化倾向率为0.783站/a(P＜0.05),发生重度灾害站数的为0.503站/a(P＜0.05),高温逼熟灾害范围在1993-2012年间扩张明显;江西省小满寒高发期为5月中旬至下旬前期,高频中心主要位于赣西北和赣东北地区;高温逼熟高发时段为7月初至中旬,高频中心主要位于浙赣铁路沿线一带、吉泰盆地、赣南北部地区.
Abstract
Based on the surface meteorological observation data from 79 weather stations in Jiangxi from 1993 to 2022,the characteristics of grain buds cold and heat-forced maturity disasters of double-cropping early rice in Jiangxi Province under climate warming were analyzed.The results showed that the grain buds cold and high-temperature forced maturity occurred on distinct extend in 80.0%and 93.3%of years during the 30 years.For time changes,the scope of grain buds cold showed a shrinking trend,and the interannual tendency rate was-0.369 stations/a(P＜0.05).The number of severe disaster stations was-0.102 stations/a(P＜0.05).The scope of heat-forced maturity showed a expanding trend.The interannual tendency rate was 0.783 stations/a(P＜0.05),and the number of severe disaster stations was 0.503 stations/a(P＜0.05).The scope of high-temperature forced maturity expended obviously during 1993～2012.The high frequency period of grain buds cold in Jiangxi was from mid-May to the early of late May,and the high frequency areas were mainly located in northwest and northeast of Jiangxi.The high frequency period of high-temperature forced maturity were from early July to mid-July,and the high frequency areas were mainly located in the area along Zhejiang-Jiangxi Railway,Jitai Basin and northern Ganzhou.
关键词
气候变暖/双季早稻/小满寒/高温逼熟/灾害特征Key words
Climate warming/Double-cropping early rice/Grain buds cold/Heat-forced maturity/Disaster characteristics引用本文复制引用
基金项目
宜春市指导性科技计划()
南昌市农业气象重点实验室开放研究项目(2022NNZS201)
江西省宜春市气象局自筹科研项目()
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据