Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Climate Suitability and Dynamic Prediction of Potato Yield in Inner Mongolia
Based on the daily meteorological data from 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia,the future climate scenario model and the physiological and biochemical indexes of potato were used to construct the temperature,precipitation,sunshine and comprehensive climate suitability in each development stage,analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of climate suitability and its relationship with potato production,and establish a potato yield forecast model based on climate suitability index,which could realize the yield forecasting business application at ten-day scale and banner county level and provide a reference for dynamic monitoring and optimization of yield forecasting model of potato in dominant producing areas.The results showed that in the past 60 years(1961～2020),the light and heat suitability of potato growing season was better than that of precipitation,and the regions with high comprehensive climate suitability had obvious advantages in climate resources in the south of central and western China and most of the eastern regions.From the perspective of interannual variation,sunshine suitability showed a weak upward trend,while temperature,precipitation and overall suitability showed a different degree of downward trend,which had a weak negative effect on potato production.In the next 50 years(2021～2070),climate change is more likely to have a weak positive effect on potato production under the low emission scenario of RCP4.5,while it is more likely to have a negative effect under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5.From early July to early September,74%of the yield forecast models passed the 0.05 confidence test,and the average accuracy rate of forecast extrapolation was 87.4%.The effect of business trial application was good,and the trend of potato forecast was basically consistent with the actual situation.
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