干旱区葡萄生长对气候变化的响应及敏感性分析
Response and Sensitivity Analysis of Grape Growth to Climate Change in Arid Regions
吾米提·居马太 1吉春容 2沈伟 3马玉平 4马红5
作者信息
- 1. 成都信息工程大学,四川 成都 610225;伊犁州气象局,新疆 伊宁 835000
- 2. 新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆农业气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;乌兰乌苏国家综合气象观测专项试验外场基地/乌兰乌苏生态与农业气象新疆野外科学观测研究站,新疆 石河子 832000
- 3. 宿迁市气象局,江苏 宿迁 223800
- 4. 伊犁州气象局,新疆 伊宁 835000
- 5. 吐鲁番农业气象试验站,新疆 吐鲁番 838000
- 折叠
摘要
为科学有效地利用气候资源和合理调整种植结构,基于1991-2022年吐鲁番市葡萄的发育期、气候因子及其产量资料,分析了葡萄生长气候变化特征、发育期和产量的年代际差异,探讨了影响其变化的敏感性气候因子.结果表明,1991-2022年吐鲁番市年平均气温、年平均0和5 cm地温及年日照时数等均呈上升的趋势,年大风日数显著下降.葡萄发育期对年平均气温和年平均5 cm地温的响应变化更加明显,气候变化促使葡萄花蕾出现期、展叶期、果实成熟期提前,全生育期有所缩短.气候产量变化对4和7月的热量条件较为敏感,花蕾出现—开花期等生长季前期气候因子对葡萄气候产量具有显著的正效应,生长季后期气温越高、日照时数越多,越不利于葡萄气候产量的形成.
Abstract
In order to provide a scientific basis for the effective utilization of climate resources and the rational adjustment of planting structures,based on the data of grape developmental stages,climate factors and yield in Turpan City from 1991 to 2022,this study analyzes the characteristics of climate change,decadal differences of developmental stages and yield,and the sensitive climate factors influencing these changes.The results show that over the past 32 years,the annual average temperature,annual average ground temperatures at 0 cm and 5 cm depths,and sunshine hours in Turpan City have all shown an upward trend,while the number of windy days has significantly decreased.The developmental stages of grapes have shown more pronounced changes in response to air and ground temperatures.Climate change has led to earlier of bud appearance,leaf expansion and maturity stages,thereby shortening the entire growth period.Climate yield changes are more sensitive to thermal conditions in April and July.Climate factors for the early phases of growth,such as those from the bud appearance to flowering period,have a significant and positive effect on the climate yield of grapes,while higher temperature and more sunshine hours in the late phases of growth are detrimental to the climate yield of grapes.
关键词
吐鲁番葡萄/气候响应/发育期/产量/敏感性气候因子Key words
Grape in Turpan/Climate response/Developmental stage/Yield/Sensitive climate factor引用本文复制引用
基金项目
新疆气象科研项目(ZD202302)
新疆维吾尔自治区"三农"骨干人才培养项目(2023SNGGGCC006)
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B02004-2)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据