Response and Sensitivity Analysis of Grape Growth to Climate Change in Arid Regions
In order to provide a scientific basis for the effective utilization of climate resources and the rational adjustment of planting structures,based on the data of grape developmental stages,climate factors and yield in Turpan City from 1991 to 2022,this study analyzes the characteristics of climate change,decadal differences of developmental stages and yield,and the sensitive climate factors influencing these changes.The results show that over the past 32 years,the annual average temperature,annual average ground temperatures at 0 cm and 5 cm depths,and sunshine hours in Turpan City have all shown an upward trend,while the number of windy days has significantly decreased.The developmental stages of grapes have shown more pronounced changes in response to air and ground temperatures.Climate change has led to earlier of bud appearance,leaf expansion and maturity stages,thereby shortening the entire growth period.Climate yield changes are more sensitive to thermal conditions in April and July.Climate factors for the early phases of growth,such as those from the bud appearance to flowering period,have a significant and positive effect on the climate yield of grapes,while higher temperature and more sunshine hours in the late phases of growth are detrimental to the climate yield of grapes.
Grape in TurpanClimate responseDevelopmental stageYieldSensitive climate factor
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