A new failure analysis method is proposed based on the I-TRIZ theory"Expected Failure Judgment(AFD)".Using functional analysis to comblate the traditional packer system hierarchy and establish a function model analysis to map the func-tionality to the component,it is conflict of the failure caused by the functional level or the component level.The analysis method can determine the technical conflict and physical conflict in the closure system,and solve the system conflict with 39 engineering parameters in the theory of TRIZ conflict.The article analyzes the existing Y341 type packer to study the method,found the fail-ure area in the working process of the packer,and verify the feasibility of the failure method.
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