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学校增值评价:模型择优与实践进路

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增值评价模型的选用是学校增值评价的关键,已有理论与实践未能就此形成定论.模型比较是确定最优模型的基本思路.本研究遵从异质性模型比较逻辑,提出以增值测度结果的一致性、模型预测精度和增值测度结果的跨时间稳定性作为模型比较指标,对多元线性回归模型、多水平线性回归模型和多水平分位数回归模型进行比较.综合模型特点与比较结果,依据模型选择策略,发现多水平分位数回归模型是学校增值评价较为理想的模型.反思学校增值评价实践,要警惕测度方法的科学性隐患、评价内容的片面性以及新的"唯分数"问题.推进学校增值评价实践健康发展,要进一步优化增值测度的精确性与稳定性,把握好学校增值评价的实践策略,拓展学校增值评价内容,开展实质性学校增值评价,以此达成学校增值评价的原本意图.
Value Added Evaluation of Schools:Model Selection and Practical Approach
The selection of value-added evaluation models is the key to school value-added evaluation,and existing theories and practices have not yet formed a consensus on this.Model comparison is the basic idea for determining the optimal model.Following the logic of heterogeneity model comparison,it is proposed to use the consistency of value-added measurement results,model prediction accuracy,and cross time stability of value-added measurement results as model comparison indicators to compare multiple linear regression models,multi-level linear regression models,and multi-level quantile regression models.Based on the characteristics and comparison results of the comprehensive model,and based on the model selection strategy,it was found that the multi-level quantile regression model is a more ideal model for school value-added evaluation.Reflecting on the practice of value-added evaluation in schools,we should be vigilant about the scientific hidden dangers of measurement methods,the one-sided nature of evaluation content,and the new"score only"problem.To promote the healthy development of school value-added evaluation practice,it is necessary to further optimize the accuracy and stability of value-added measurement,grasp the practical strategies of school value-added evaluation,expand the content of school value-added evaluation,and carry out substantive school value-added evaluation,in order to achieve the original intention of school value-added evaluation.

value added evaluation of schoolsselection of value-added evaluation modelsvalue added evaluation practice

袁建林、唐瑞希、罗仲尤

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湖南大学教育科学研究院(长沙 410006)

学校增值评价 增值评价模型选择 增值评价实践

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(2019)

19YJC880123

2024

教育发展研究
上海市教育科学研究院 上海市高等教育学会

教育发展研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.416
ISSN:1008-3855
年,卷(期):2024.44(2)
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