Prediction and Optimization Analysis of the Type Structure of Higher Education in China Toward 2035
The current research universities and student scale in China are relatively small,while the overall proportion of vocational colleges and students is relatively large.This type of higher education structure with a steep top and a heavy bottom cannot adapt to the transformation of industrial structure and national innovation and development.Based on the changes in the type structure of higher education since the popularization of higher education in the United States,this study combines data indicators such as gross enrollment rate and per capita GDP of higher education,and adopts an autoregressive distributed lag model to optimize and predict the type structure of higher education in China by 2035.Based on empirical results,it is recommended that the appropriate target for the type structure of higher education in China by 2035 is:the proportion of students in research-oriented universities is about 22％,the proportion of students in other undergraduate colleges is about 40％,and the proportion of students in vocational colleges is about 38％.To achieve this goal,it is necessary to quickly reverse the growth model of higher education in China and increase the recent adjustment efforts;It is needed to expand the number of"double first-class"colleges and universities and the average cultivating scale,especially the undergraduate training scale,in order to establish a universal higher education type structure that meets the new needs of economic and social development and the process of Chinese path to modernization.
structure of higher education typesgross enrollment rate in higher educationper capita GDPtype structure optimization
万方数据
维普
