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基于Cox-Stuart检验方法的城镇调查失业率趋势分析

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本文根据国家统计局数据,分别对全国城镇调查失业率、全国 16-24 岁人口城镇调查失业率、全国 25-59 岁人口城镇调查失业率三个指标,应用Cox-Stuart趋势存在性检验方法进行趋势检验,结果表明:2018 年 1 月-2023 年 6 月这 66 个月里,全国城镇调查失业率和全国 25-59 岁人口城镇调查失业率无明显递增趋势,但全国 16-24 岁人口城镇调查失业率有明显的递增趋势。这些结果不仅明确了我国各年龄段调查失业率的具体情况,还在一定程度上反映了已经出台的稳岗就业政策的实施效果,为相关政策的进一步完善提供了参考。
Trend Analysis of Urban Survey Unemployment Rate Based on Cox-Stuart Test Method
Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics,this article uses Cox Stuart trend existence test method to conduct trend tests on three indicators:national urban survey unemployment rate,national urban survey unemployment rate for population aged 16-24,and national urban survey unemployment rate for population aged 25-59.The results show that from January 2018 to June 2023,there was no significant increasing trend in the national urban survey unemployment rate and the national urban survey unemployment rate for population aged 25-59,but there was a significant increasing trend in the national urban survey unemployment rate for population aged 16-24.These results not only clarify the specific situation of the surveyed unemployment rate in various age groups in China,but also reflect to a certain extent the implementation effect of the stable employment policies that have been introduced,providing reference for further improvement of relevant policies.

non parametric testingtrend analysissurveyed jobless rate in urban areas

谢宗成、李秋敏、唐程、周旋

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成都信息工程大学统计学院,成都 610000

非参数检验 趋势分析 城镇调查失业率

2025

价值工程
河北省技术经济管理现代化研究会

价值工程

影响因子:0.559
ISSN:1006-4311
年,卷(期):2025.44(3)