Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction of Residential Buildings in Beijing Under the Background of"Double Carbon"
Facing the carbon reduction pressure faced by Beijing under the"Double Carbon"goal,this study makes a reasonable prediction of the future development trend of carbon emission of residential buildings in the operation stage by using the LCA theory and combining the STIRPAT model,scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method,This study found that there are 9 influencing factors have significant effects on the operating carbon emissions of residential buildings in Beijing.Under the effect of Beijing's"14th Five-Year Plan"energy conservation and emission reduction policy,the operating carbon emission rate of residential buildings has significantly decreased,but it still cannot achieve the"carbon peak"target of residential buildings.Permanent resident population,centralized heating area,residential energy consumption,energy consumption per unit GDP,and newly built residential area contribute the most to the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings in Beijing.Therefore,the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings should focus on the improvement of development planning,population control,residential building development areas;promoting green and clean energy,improving of the energy mix,and strengthening supervision and management;implementing differentiated incentive policies for different subjects.
residential buildingscarbon emission predictionmonte carlo simulation
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万方数据
