分别采用文献研究法、问卷调查法和德尔菲法对云南山区高速公路养护成本影响因素进行识别和调整,得出通车年限、车道数、路基宽度、路面厚度、桥隧比、交通量、当地年降雨量、坡度和直接费用 9个关键影响因素.运用灰色关联分析法计算各影响因素与养护成本的关联度,再对关联度ri>0.8的影响因素进行定量分析.在此基础上,构建关联度ri>0.8的影响因素对云南山区高速公路养护成本的多元回归模型,并选取云南省 DG高速公路养护 B 段为案例,证明了多元线性回归模型应用的可行性.
Study on Influencing Factors of Maintenance Cost Control of Expressway in Mountainous Area of Yunnan Province
In this paper,literature research,questionnaire surveys,and the Delphi method were used to identify and adjust the factors influencing the maintenance cost of Yunnan mountain expressways.Nine key factors were derived:years of operation,number of lanes,roadbed width,pavement thickness,bridge-to-tunnel ratio,traffic volume,local annual rainfall,gradient,and direct cost..Grey correlation analysis was used to calculate the correlation between the influencing factors and the maintenance cost.Finally,the influencing factors with correlation ri>0.8 were quantitatively analysed.On this basis,a multiple regression model was constructed for the influence factors with correlation ri>0.8 on the maintenance cost of Yunnan mountainous expressways,and section B of DG highway maintenance in Yunnan Province was selected as the case which proved the feasibility of the application of the multiple linear regression model.
mountainous area of Yunnanexpresswaysmaintenance costcost controlinfluencing factors
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