首页|基于随机森林的住宅全寿命期碳排放预测及减排策略研究

基于随机森林的住宅全寿命期碳排放预测及减排策略研究

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在住宅工程的规划设计阶段进行全寿命期的碳排放预测和控制对实现碳减排具有重要意义.预测住宅全寿命期碳排放,分析建筑特征变量对碳排放的影响.通过随机森林建立住宅碳排放预测模型,并对建筑特征变量进行重要性排序,从而为建筑碳排放控制提供依据.本研究筛选 17篇关于建筑碳排放影响因素的文献,归纳和分类了建筑碳排放的影响因素指标;通过案例分析和专家访谈,分析了住宅工程碳排放特征因素.基于随机森林的回归模型建立了住宅工程碳排放预测模型.对特征变量的重要性进行排序分析,并提出合理减排策略.
Research on the Whore Life Cycle Carbon Emission Prediction and Reduction Strategies for Residential Buildings Based on Random Forest Method
Predicting and controlling carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of the residential projects during the planning and design phase is of great significance for achieving carbon reduction.This study aimed to predict the carbon emissions over the entire life cycle of residential buildings and to analyze the impact of building characteristic variables on carbon emissions.A residential carbon emission prediction model was established using a random forest method,and the importance of building characteristic variables was ranked,providing a basis for controlling building carbon emissions.This study screened 17 papers on the influencing factors of building carbon emissions,summarized and classified the indicators of influencing factors of building carbon emissions;by case analysis and expert interviews,the characteristic factors of carbon emissions in residential projects were analyzed.Based on the regression model of the random forest,a prediction model for carbon emissions in residential projects was established.The importance of characteristic variables was ranked and analyzed and reasonable emission reduction strategies was proposed.

carbon emission predictionrandom forestengineering characteristic variablesemission reduction strategies

高振基、郭婧娟、夏雨欣、李东升

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北京交通大学,北京 100044

碳排放预测 随机森林 工程特征变量 减排策略

2024

工程管理学报
哈尔滨工业大学 中国建筑业协会管理现代化专业委员会

工程管理学报

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:1.613
ISSN:1674-8859
年,卷(期):2024.38(6)