Prediction of wind speed with mean recurrence interval from short-term records
When constructing the important buildings,structures or bridges in remote areas or mountainous areas,wind speed observation instruments are usually installed nearby to obtain short-term wind speed records of at least one year.A method of predicting extreme wind speed and wind pressure with a specified return period based on short-term wind speed records was proposed,which provides a scientific basis for wind-resisting design of structures.The independent storm method was proposed to extract the maximum speeds of short-term records;and then the extreme value Ⅰ-type probability distribution model was established,in which the best linear unbiased estimation method was used to determine the probability distribution parameters.According to the transformation relationship between the probability of the maximum value of short-term wind speed and the probability of the maximum value of annual wind speed,the probability distribution model of the maximum annual wind speeds was obtained while the expression of wind speed and wind pressure with a specified return period were established.The results of an example show that the discreteness of the predicted speed is related to the threshold value of wind speed,and the wind speed and its confidence interval can be determined when the discrete coefficient is small.
short-term recordextreme value Ⅰ-type distributionbest linear unbiased estimationextreme wind speed
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
