Methodology and Case Study of Energy Consumption Simulation in Settlements Based on Stochastic Air Conditioning Energy Use Behavior
The current urban residential energy consumption prediction research is primary based on fixed air conditioning energy use behaviors,resulting in a big difference between energy consumption simulation results and the actual result,and most of the research focus on the single building prediction.To this end,this paper established a set of air conditioning and window opening stochastic energy behavior simulation methods,conducted simulation to obtain the full-year air conditioning and windows random sequences,and found that the error between the simulation results and the questionnaire statistical results is no greater than 5％,thus verifying the rationality of the method.On this basis,typical buildings in the settlement of Hangzhou were selected through cluster analysis,and the air conditioning energy consumption in the settlement was obtained based on the area of the typical buildings and the air conditioning energy intensity of individual buildings.It was found that the annual power consumption of refrigeration and air-conditioning(26.5 kW·h/m2)calculated by the fixed energy use behavior was 15.72％higher than that using the random energy use behavior(22.9 kW·h/m2),and the annual power consumption of heating(26.1 kW·h/m2)was 6.1％higher than that using the random energy use behavior(24.6 kW·h/m2).This study provides methodological support for the accurate simulation of energy consumption in settlements,bearing significance for the subsequent development of grid peak shaving and valley filling as well as energy saving strategies based on the energy consumption of building operation.
settlementsstochastic energy use behaviorenergy consumption predictionfeature clusteringair conditioning
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