Potential suitability of the European Wood wasp(Sirex noctilio)in the context of climate change
Sirex noctilio Fabricius is a seriously harmful forest tree drilling moth pest,which is a major international forestry quarantine object.The host plant is varied and primarily detrimental to conifer;Pinus is the most chosen pine.The species originated Europe and North Africa,and after being discovered for the first time in New Zealand,it was brought to Australia.It has since caused minor damage in Uruguay,Brazil,South Africa and the United States.In 2013,Heilongjiang Province in China became the site of its initial discovery.Based on 286 occurrence points of the S.noctilio,combined with 11 bioclimatic variables and terrain factor(Altitude,Slope),as well as present scale(1970-2000)and future scale(2050,2070)periods under two different SSP scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions intensities(SSP126,SSP245),a simulation study of the potential distribution of the S.noctilio was conducted using the maximum entropy model.The findings showed that the four important climate factors were the annual mean temperature(Bio01),the highest temperature in the warmest(Bio05),the dry month precipitation(Bio14),and the seasonal precipitation(Bio15),which were selected by the Jackknife method.Data for S.noctilio were updated as of 2022.The result indicated that:① Similar to previous studies,the suitability area in the northern Hemisphere were significantly larger than those in the southern hemisphere,but the range of the suitability area was smaller than previous studies.In particular,the highly habitat suitability area in China were limited to northeast and North China,which was consistent with the host plant distribution of S.noctilio;②In the two future scale scenarios,the total range of the future scale suitability area increased significantly compared with the present scale suitability area,indicating that the range of the future scale suitability area expanded towards increasing the potential dispersal range of S.noctilio.Under natural conditions,the distribution range of S.noctilio in the future scale is more likely to rise.In addition,the most important factor for the growth of S.noctilio was the annual mean temperature(Bio01).In view of the fact that S.noctilio has been included in the relevant foreign invasion list of the country for control,and the range of suitability area for S.noctilio will continue to expand in the future,and affected by the highest temperature in the warmest(Bio05),quarantine efforts should be strengthened to take certain prevention and control measures against the temperature rise caused by global warming,so as to reduce the risk of global transmission.
Sirex noctilioclimate changeMaxEnt modelpotential suitable area
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