Prediction of potential geographical distribution of Myllocerinus aurolineatus in China under climate change
Myllocerinus aurolineatus is an important Coleoptera pest on tea trees.In recent years,it has occurred widely in major tea areas in China and broke out in some areas.This study collected and sorted out the distribution point data of M.aurolineatus in China,predicted its potential suitable area under the current and future climate change scenarios in China by using MaxEnt model,and determined the dominant environmental variables affecting its potential distribution.The results showed that the average AUC of 10 repeated runs of the model was 0.923 and the standard deviation was 0.007,and the prediction effect was very good.Under the current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus were mainly concentrated in most areas of East China,central China,South China and Southwest China,with a total suitable area of 2.4718 million km2 respectively.Under the future climate scenario,the total suitable area will gradually increase,and the boundary of the suitable area will continue to expand to the north along the current suitable area,and the northernmost will spread to Jilin Province,in SSP5_85 scenario from 2061 to 2080,the total suitable area reaches the maximum of 2.5559 million km2,accounting for 26.62％of the total area of China.The dominant environment variable affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus are the precipitation of the driest month,the annual precipitation,the min temperature of the coldest month,and the isothermality.Therefore,the study on the changes of potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus under current and future climate scenarios can provide scientific guidance for its monitoring and early warning,and effectively prevent its large-scale spread from causing greater harm.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
